Glenn Youngkin in 2024? Bad idea
A great governor and a rising star in the GOP - but the 2024 Republican primary is already a 2 man race. There isn't room for Glenn Youngkin.
Glenn Youngkin quickly became a star in the Republican Party after his upset victory in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. Youngkin’s win was, to many, the first tangible sign of an inevitable red wave in 2022. His unwavering advocacy for parental rights in the classroom, his common-sense family value policies like the elimination of the grocery tax, and his general likability were some of the key factors that led to his victory. Given that Virginia governors are ineligible to serve 2 consecutive terms, it was clear from the start: Youngkin’s ambitions do not end in the governor’s mansion.
Many are speculating that Youngkin will run for President in 2024. It’s a long way away, yet we already seem to be in the early stages of a Republican primary. Donald Trump is expected to run again, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has consistently polled in second place, right behind the former president. Both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are the clear favorites for 2024, both utilizing the “MAGA” energy of the base to their benefit, so it will be interesting to see which kinds of Republicans throw their hats in the ring going forward. Will Senator Romney run again? Maybe Liz Cheney? Both are possible, but they wouldn’t fair well. Larry Elder, who ran against Gavin Newsom in California’s recall election, hinted he may enter the field as well. Even with these potential candidates (and the list is quite likely to grow substantially), the field is already too crowded.
The general election, as it stands, would easily be won by either Trump or DeSantis. Over 60 percent of Democrats don’t want Joe Biden to run for reelection. This is no surprise – President Biden’s approval rating continues to plummet, with a recent New York Times/Sienna college poll placing him at a mere 33%. Vice President Harris is in a similar position. Other potential options for a Democratic candidate include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and potentially even Jeff Bezos. In short, it’s looking grim for Democrats.
Glenn Youngkin would probably do quite well in a Republican primary – any other year than 2024. What he stands to gain in a potential run is a probable third place. What he stands to lose is the immense respect he’s garnered since his victory in November of 2021. He would likely be labeled a RINO by the Republican base for running against Trump and DeSantis (even if that label doesn’t truly apply). Though this is speculation, I find it highly unlikely that if Youngkin were to run against Trump (assuming Trump wins the nomination), that he would fall back into the former president’s good graces. If Youngkin refrains, though, he is a clear pick for a cabinet position. The most likely being Secretary of Education, given his ardent fight for parental rights during his gubernatorial campaign, as well as the subsequent schooling legislation he signed into law.
In short: Glenn Youngkin has nothing to gain from a presidential bid, but quite a bit to lose. Not only his good name, but also the possibility of earning a cabinet position in a Trump or DeSantis administration (even VP, if he’s lucky).
The Republican base has already decided the Republican nominee will be one of the two – Trump or DeSantis. Anyone else who throws their hat in the ring will be lighting money on fire.
After defeating Democratic establishment candidate Terry McAuliffe, Glenn Youngkin showed Americans just how enthusiastic the Republican base is right now. The energy that Donald Trump brought to the GOP has not dissipated, and Glenn Youngkin utilized it well in 2021. Though when his term ends, it is highly likely that he will run for president, and that would be an expensive mistake. The base has already narrowed it down to 2 people. For Glenn Youngkin, the best thing he can do right now is to continue governing the way he has been, sit the race out in 2024, and bet on the winning horse instead.